Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3669d9eecba7d221c6a531041d2c22bd02b4541cba7151c3684f76acc50d2b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fc6…f478backed No | 0c | 175,284$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…0d2bbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed No | 14c | 793.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 749.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…4c81backed No | 19c | 535.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…4b47backed No | 17c | 467.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 438.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…fe51backed No | 21c | 424.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 422.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 400.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 80c | 366.02$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0128…d18abacked No | 19c | 365.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…91a8backed No | 15c | 336.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 39c | 265.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed No | 18c | 264.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 242$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc3…2ccfbacked No | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 18c | 224.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a16…ad87backed No | 17c | 202.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 202$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 10c | 194.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked No | 17c | 188.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 150.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0b…c5f8backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…9e5abacked No | 15c | 136.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 13c | 131.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…4353backed No | 34c | 129.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 53c | 112.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…2a92backed No | 23c | 105.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 22c | 100.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…0e47backed No | 18c | 100.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 79c | 99.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…d720backed No | 20c | 96.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 57c | 83.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8623…9fadbacked No | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed No | 29c | 70.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf52…2dafbacked No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed No | 20c | 68.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…f848backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…8fc2backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 16c | 67.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed No | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559f…04a4backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…1da2backed No | 45c | 27.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 77c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e7…5df1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.