Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d52995125c14f083a748dbe3d4d78565ff3d0db301bfb4bf8a8390905c3830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e8b…0d2bbacked No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 5,639$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…4c81backed No | 11c | 3,389$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed No | 1c | 2,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 1,867$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…3d51backed No | 25c | 1,300$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,054$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 947.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 708.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 699.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a16…ad87backed No | 10c | 621.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…85dabacked No | 7c | 462.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 4c | 373.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked No | 8c | 362.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 9c | 320$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…6fcfbacked No | 9c | 296$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 259.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4d…94b6backed No | 11c | 228.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 221.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf52…2dafbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 8c | 192.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 184.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47db…1b81backed No | 12c | 142.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 114.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…79c3backed No | 10c | 103.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…1487backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.