AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b7269de278116b89044eaf94f7045d5e9e85c3728ae0d651bbe5599b3f99f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 68c | 3,832$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.03 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 2,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 8c | 2,213$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 75c | 2,047$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.63 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 69c | 1,930$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.35 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 47c | 1,701$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.88 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 1,346$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…a167backed No | 2c | 1,274$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 1c | 1,139$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 48c | 975.34$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.34 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 2c | 930.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…1295backed No | 2c | 902.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf59…dc8bbacked No | 2c | 866.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 47c | 820$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.8 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 69c | 762.74$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.71 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 53c | 627.98$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 10c | 539.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 494.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 426.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 35c | 417.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.94 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 343.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed Yes | 71c | 299.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…4951backed Yes | 45c | 288.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 45c | 260$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 12c | 216$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…b513backed No | 8c | 205.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…9bb3backed Yes | 70c | 177.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…7102backed Yes | 76c | 131.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 22c | 115.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 106.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e5…f00cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 62c | 98.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 86.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 72c | 80.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 69.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 49c | 68.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 38c | 63.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 44c | 55.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 26c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 44c | 49.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 48c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 42c | 40.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 55c | 37.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 30.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 53c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 47c | 27.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.