AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755e71197eb78ca86e6c2e6f2dd7f3627e58a8e20e199afd6343a2f62e72fc7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 6,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 6c | 3,555$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc796…d37cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,060$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 12c | 2,860$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.82 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…985cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,440$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…5a5dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,192$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,707$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…74a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,661$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8534…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 1,480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 46c | 1,427$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 21c | 1,084$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.63 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 16c | 711.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c7…af44backed Yes | 36c | 687.96$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 3c | 664.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 4c | 599.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 21c | 584.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 463.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 79c | 455.94$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…78c0backed Yes | 4c | 451.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…eae9backed Yes | 15c | 392.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +396.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…f419backed Yes | 9c | 300.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…4951backed Yes | 36c | 276.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed Yes | 18c | 265$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +395.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 249.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 22c | 248.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 246.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 53c | 207.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 207.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 63c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 121.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 20c | 69.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…6ab3backed Yes | 15c | 64.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 62c | 56.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…ed98backed Yes | 28c | 47.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…7a52backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?Yes won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.