World Politics · resolved market
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Bolivia Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa08c6e1cb85d5b334057af7c7f3107ea6049a5d9c490e7e3a967d5a8543c38f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 15,503$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.61 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,762$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.21 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…79a4backed Yes | 1c | 11,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 11,087$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.28 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 3c | 8,877$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 3c | 7,881$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.18 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 5c | 5,647$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.6 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 5c | 2,582$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…73d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,917$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,548$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,399$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 3c | 1,253$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…d146backed Yes | 4c | 1,234$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe871…a165backed Yes | 6c | 1,062$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 3c | 705.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 658.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 598.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 579.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…dbd7backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f4…8223backed Yes | 2c | 499.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…b04abacked Yes | 4c | 426.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…8f37backed Yes | 4c | 395.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 3c | 373.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…76d9backed Yes | 4c | 358$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 341.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Yes | 4c | 251.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.