World Politics · resolved market
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765526f3924b2485255cc2957e5e7b19fa76107b822c5870b5162b0734be8e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,444 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,977$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…73d0backed No | 2c | 3,923$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…1db2backed No | 3c | 3,459$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 2,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…ccd3backed No | 3c | 1,962$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +420.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…8804backed No | 1c | 1,503$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 8c | 1,360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…1567backed Yes | 75c | 1,093$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…7f3fbacked No | 3c | 1,085$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 1,033$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…aa12backed No | 1c | 914.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 518.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 415.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 316.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 271.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 239.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 199.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…0df2backed Yes | 52c | 182.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…0c4abacked Yes | 49c | 152.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 138.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd6…6b30backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 102.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 80c | 95.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…5444backed No | 20c | 92.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…a018backed Yes | 34c | 89.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 29c | 61.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…a8c8backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…2ba0backed Yes | 61c | 59.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 59.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 31c | 57.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…5912backed Yes | 55c | 50.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…e282backed No | 30c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 73c | 47.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 25c | 45.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…8d7abacked Yes | 65c | 36.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…d26abacked Yes | 70c | 30.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 45c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf471…f0d8backed Yes | 54c | 25.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6106…9917backed Yes | 54c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…72efbacked Yes | 68c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2b…8615backed Yes | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…84eabacked Yes | 57c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…83f9backed Yes | 67c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…60c5backed Yes | 70c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760a…79b8backed Yes | 79c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…a7e7backed Yes | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?this page
- Will Carlos Zavaleta win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Cristian Tastaca win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Edgar Javier Rodriguez win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Francisco Javier Bellott win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Luis Roberto Perrogón win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Ramón Daza win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Rocio Alejandra Molina win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
- Will Ronald Antonio Unzueta win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.