TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfec…9cccbacked No5c1,340$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.41723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+2,755.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No10c1,062$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.476836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5b…73d0backed No10c733.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.972045%9 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+67%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No6c423.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9316616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes73c333.87$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.393470.6%24 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4603…c2ebbacked Yes73c273.71$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.941070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca0…45f0backed No49c246.89$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd579…374ebacked No15c164.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…7553backed Yes72c139.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aba…5642backed Yes73c137.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No26c133.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.182931%9 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No20c128.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.598354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3948…8655backed Yes72c125.55$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2168…9f4abacked Yes72c109.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No14c105.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9724110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes69c104.5$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.652441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed No32c99.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.131020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No12c93.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No43c89.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.298252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0b…855ebacked Yes78c75.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes72c69.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…f2e8backed Yes72c67.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718a…9603backed Yes66c60.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No29c60.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c52.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0b79…dc53backed Yes77c51.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6393…3d50backed Yes51c49.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No26c47.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6126052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed Yes42c47.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.284040%16 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x371f…810bbacked Yes65c46.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe0…d820backed Yes66c45.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3f…2c26backed Yes64c42.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee3…612dbacked Yes68c41.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.282161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…5fccbacked Yes52c38.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes36c36.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.488552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0bc…f6cbbacked Yes50c34.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes75c34.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.756418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f3…3e79backed No39c27.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes68c23.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7118246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…4de6backed Yes50c23.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba85…584fbacked No50c23.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4e…b9cdbacked Yes50c21.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3191…c919backed Yes69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd852…d5a4backed Yes71c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.243100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa9…23c9backed Yes50c20.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd563…63a7backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…7959backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9935…a04cbacked Yes72c18.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe138…8448backed Yes79c17.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes67c17.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.932152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9395…b9cabacked Yes65c16.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.