World Politics · resolved market
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6f43e1b34f166de5b069153a578cf9b659b9104a72f39ba7a9df21932407ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfec…9cccbacked No | 5c | 1,340$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +2,755.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 10c | 1,062$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…73d0backed No | 10c | 733.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 423.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes | 73c | 333.87$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4603…c2ebbacked Yes | 73c | 273.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed No | 49c | 246.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd579…374ebacked No | 15c | 164.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Yes | 72c | 139.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…5642backed Yes | 73c | 137.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 26c | 133.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 128.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…8655backed Yes | 72c | 125.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…9f4abacked Yes | 72c | 109.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 105.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 69c | 104.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed No | 32c | 99.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 93.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 43c | 89.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…855ebacked Yes | 78c | 75.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…9f96backed Yes | 72c | 69.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…f2e8backed Yes | 72c | 67.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…9603backed Yes | 66c | 60.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 29c | 60.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 52.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…dc53backed Yes | 77c | 51.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…3d50backed Yes | 51c | 49.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 47.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 42c | 47.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371f…810bbacked Yes | 65c | 46.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…d820backed Yes | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…2c26backed Yes | 64c | 42.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Yes | 68c | 41.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c6…5fccbacked Yes | 52c | 38.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 36c | 36.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…f6cbbacked Yes | 50c | 34.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 75c | 34.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…3e79backed No | 39c | 27.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…4de6backed Yes | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…584fbacked No | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…b9cdbacked Yes | 50c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…d5a4backed Yes | 71c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa9…23c9backed Yes | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd563…63a7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a04cbacked Yes | 72c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe138…8448backed Yes | 79c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 67c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…b9cabacked Yes | 65c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Augusto Saturnino Oblitas win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Demetrio Villca win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Germán Riveros win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Orlando Callisaya win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will René Yahuasi Calamani win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Richard Andrés Gómez win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Santos Quispe Quispe win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.