Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce76e0f4bc97c60d38e420fb2d927dab19551329e26cb66d164f0c975aac573c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 417.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 358.9$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 15c | 307.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 71c | 297.25$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 257.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 148.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 77c | 141.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 137.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 32c | 128.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 77c | 126.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 111.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 26c | 108.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 103.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 95.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 89.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…9e62backed Yes | 29c | 86.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 25c | 83.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 75c | 78.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…abf8backed No | 61c | 64.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 44c | 55.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 26c | 54.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 48.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 59c | 48.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 48.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 76c | 43.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 40.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 59c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…5418backed No | 78c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…6a09backed No | 78c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…c653backed Yes | 50c | 21.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…000cbacked No | 78c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.