Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb33f956d46a8c86cd88367796fbe1f6655429c5892e283d0ac39ff2a06a7d54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 399.37$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 379.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 355.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 59c | 334.47$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 70c | 291.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 173.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 161.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 153.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 142.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 49c | 134.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 122.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 40c | 93.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 92.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 92.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 91.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 88.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 37c | 88.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 80.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 71c | 63.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 19c | 62.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 45c | 59.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 63c | 53.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 65c | 51.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 50.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed Yes | 70c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 63c | 46.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 42.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 45c | 42.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…9e62backed Yes | 31c | 38.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 39c | 36.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 36.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…925dbacked Yes | 52c | 36.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 51c | 35.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 70c | 34.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 57c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 36c | 32.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed Yes | 58c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 74c | 31.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 31.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 31.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 30.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 37c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 68c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 57c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…39bfbacked No | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 60c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…9c3cbacked Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…848fbacked Yes | 70c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…fc85backed Yes | 70c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.