Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769c57ad352f47057595e0c0cd7ac94e256883298afbe1f5b5b22a6d0ed811ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 758.55$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 64c | 725.52$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.04 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 58c | 523.53$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.59 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 25c | 439.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.82 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 430.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.76 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 8c | 359.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 4c | 357.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 30c | 306.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.11 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 40c | 295.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 67c | 269.74$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 245.71$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 231.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed No | 77c | 209.73$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 16c | 180.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 67c | 179.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 47c | 170.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 70c | 161.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 159.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 39c | 149.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 20c | 149.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 139.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 70c | 138.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…9181backed Yes | 20c | 127.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked No | 60c | 122.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 72c | 122.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 48c | 121.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 118.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 15c | 116.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked No | 77c | 115.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 71c | 109.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 12c | 109.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 19c | 108.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 43c | 104.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 15c | 98.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes | 27c | 92.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked No | 79c | 89.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 86.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 82.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 79c | 81.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 80.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 17c | 79.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed Yes | 75c | 78.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 37c | 76.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 76.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed No | 76c | 64.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 77c | 63.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 63.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 78c | 61.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9f9abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 72c | 59.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 45c | 59.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 43c | 56.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 78c | 54.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…a45abacked Yes | 30c | 53.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4026…b085backed Yes | 74c | 52.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 22c | 52.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 75c | 52.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 21c | 50.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 23c | 48.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 62c | 47.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 44c | 42.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 42.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 61c | 40.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 78c | 35.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 35.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 78c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…c9a6backed No | 78c | 34.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 32.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 30.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 76c | 25.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 80c | 23.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 44c | 23.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 76c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed No | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 80c | 20.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 73c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 18.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.