Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4a3f42ff8ceb65290c949600ea068812adf6a7b9326b3b1d6f0ca0de53e4c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 4c | 6,168$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.71 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,584$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,364$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 5c | 1,235$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 6c | 1,122$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,037$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,032$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 982.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 4c | 822.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…ee3fbacked Yes | 6c | 617.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 595.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 595.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 5c | 558.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 10c | 532.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 4c | 481.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 479.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 7c | 455.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 6c | 392.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 11c | 373.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…a54bbacked Yes | 3c | 371.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 321.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 4c | 308.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 7c | 248.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 9c | 208$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 203.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 7c | 201.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 6c | 200.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 180.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 175.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 159.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…79ccbacked Yes | 9c | 148.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…5e50backed Yes | 11c | 139.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b0c2backed Yes | 14c | 126.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 35c | 82.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 15c | 69.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.