Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa71bc2d89c8859f94fb8070d6b097e9a7c3c27b8bc054acdf0fb6155cc9bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 671.08$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 46c | 656.35$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.86 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 48c | 649.63$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.55 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 25c | 495.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 15c | 438.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 27c | 317.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 6c | 309.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 51c | 284.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 232.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 228.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 7c | 227.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 51c | 218.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 215.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 49c | 213.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 199.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 198.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 189.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 74c | 187.02$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 19c | 181.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d3ebbacked Yes | 55c | 174.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 174.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 169.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 169.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 165.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 40c | 164.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 50c | 134.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 47c | 132.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 132.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 52c | 128.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 125.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 124.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 121.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 117.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 116.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 58c | 115.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked Yes | 10c | 111.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 102.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 28c | 102.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…2c25backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 43c | 99.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 97.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 51c | 93.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 89.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 54c | 88.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 51c | 79.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 55c | 78.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 55c | 77.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 27c | 69.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 26c | 68.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 68.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 50c | 66.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed No | 47c | 65.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 51c | 63.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 72c | 61.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 53c | 61.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 49c | 57.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 52c | 56.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 71c | 56.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 68c | 55.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…a45abacked Yes | 37c | 55.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 54.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 53.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 50.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 51c | 49.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 49.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 68c | 48.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 48.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 46.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 52c | 46.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 45.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…99b9backed Yes | 49c | 44.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 43c | 43.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 45c | 43.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 51c | 40.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 48c | 40.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7360…1848backed Yes | 55c | 39.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 38.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 36.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…925dbacked Yes | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 57c | 33.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 38c | 32.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 32.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 68c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 30.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.