Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8ce5155dcce19c57d788c82b1b1ce1e4ed45551f4a2743e5a834e88744587a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe976…2c25backed Yes | 2c | 1,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 1,029$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 2c | 971.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 714.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed No | 80c | 602.37$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 33c | 560$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 25c | 530.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 17c | 365.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 248.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 240.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 219.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 75c | 197.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 179.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 167.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 163.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 151.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 148.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 141.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 139.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 137.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 127.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 27c | 125.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 17c | 119.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 118.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 22c | 116.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 19c | 97.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 95.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 76c | 94.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 90.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 30c | 88.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 69.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 79c | 68.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 70c | 68.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 23c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 65.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 63.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 16c | 62.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 72c | 48.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 47.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 47.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…5323backed Yes | 29c | 44.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 30c | 44.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 25c | 42.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 40.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 39.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…31e9backed No | 73c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b0…ead2backed No | 71c | 33.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 29.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed No | 75c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5563…51bcbacked No | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 70c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 73c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 73c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 24.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…5ff7backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…ca85backed No | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked No | 76c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 70c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 75c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 75c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 78c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 70c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 14.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.