Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ddd971b3a8e67051ee345a3a87a3c0fe9d15be30812725cff89521c40fa8a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 11c | 693.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 72c | 642.29$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3d…9977backed No | 63c | 371.97$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…61b1backed No | 63c | 341.9$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…3eb5backed No | 63c | 335.19$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…a712backed No | 63c | 324.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097b…1e30backed No | 63c | 320.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c252backed No | 63c | 319.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…ef55backed Yes | 37c | 318.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…5a96backed Yes | 37c | 318.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7a…a3bcbacked Yes | 37c | 317.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…9e31backed Yes | 37c | 316.9$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…48bbbacked Yes | 37c | 316.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…65e3backed Yes | 37c | 316.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…a693backed No | 63c | 310.73$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…ff59backed No | 63c | 305.67$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…2820backed No | 63c | 304.25$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3815…0a80backed No | 63c | 298.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…f421backed No | 63c | 293.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5406…b1cdbacked No | 63c | 283.37$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 74c | 274.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed No | 5c | 237.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 12c | 207$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 74c | 205.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 165$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 10c | 157.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 134.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…08c6backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 53c | 57.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 21c | 52.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 41c | 41.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 50c | 38.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 76c | 36.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 45c | 28.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 70c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?this page
- Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?No won
- Will Gavin Solomon be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?No won
- Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.