Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e2394a45ef085fc74b1fe63f4f66ecfd90f4be11c17b463066c83381e359b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b3…fda5backed No | 69c | 256.37$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…da80backed No | 69c | 255.96$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c5e0backed No | 69c | 253.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…6655backed No | 69c | 250.47$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…0592backed No | 69c | 249.43$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…3ef9backed No | 69c | 249.39$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0029…80ecbacked No | 69c | 249.01$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed No | 69c | 248.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dc…9389backed No | 69c | 247.78$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked No | 69c | 245.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…4224backed No | 69c | 245.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff0…053cbacked No | 69c | 244.2$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…600cbacked No | 69c | 243.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…6817backed No | 69c | 243.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1494…0593backed No | 69c | 240.39$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed No | 69c | 238.89$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…7007backed No | 69c | 238.36$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44df…7855backed No | 69c | 237.19$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…76f2backed No | 69c | 236.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…10c0backed No | 69c | 236.63$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…eeeabacked No | 69c | 235.94$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…10c6backed No | 69c | 235.87$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…3768backed No | 69c | 235.63$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…fd0bbacked No | 69c | 233.74$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…a4ccbacked No | 69c | 233.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…3b22backed No | 69c | 231.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 69c | 231.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6c…1bc6backed No | 69c | 231.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…69cbbacked No | 69c | 230.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…0579backed No | 69c | 228.43$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…08c6backed Yes | 23c | 93.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 74.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 80c | 29.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 76c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?this page
- Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?No won
- Will Gavin Solomon be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?No won
- Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.