Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c60a541bf7263cd435fd3a9e5bbbfd0970bebaafc5b83a7ea932ce0ab1e7350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 53c | 942.63$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.36 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 50c | 403.38$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.69 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 305.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 234.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 50c | 201.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 72c | 172.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 163.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…85afbacked Yes | 35c | 162.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 35c | 157.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ee84backed Yes | 29c | 154.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 144.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 51c | 139.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 134.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 37c | 132.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 27c | 130.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 25c | 127.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 13c | 122.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 110.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 94.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 89.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 87.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 78.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Yes | 14c | 78.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 74.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 20c | 73.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 71.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 47c | 70.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 66.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 61.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 54.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 51.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 67c | 46.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 25c | 45.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…c3b1backed No | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 60c | 37.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 39c | 36.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 36.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes | 60c | 36.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 60c | 29.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 59c | 29.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 59c | 29.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 79c | 28.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 73c | 22.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 21.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 71c | 14.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.