Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf7077c80994ef60b59c7562ee23437168d47249c8e248acd6751495587796f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 19c | 308.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 304.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 43c | 299.31$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 289.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…76d7backed Yes | 35c | 243.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 236.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 14c | 230.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 32c | 229.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 208.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 34c | 170$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 164.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 9c | 144.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 143.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 137.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 70c | 133.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 79.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 72c | 71.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 62c | 68.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 68.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 67.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 67.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 39c | 63.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 56c | 55.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 65c | 53.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 30c | 52.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 57c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 45c | 48.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 32c | 44.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 40.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 56c | 33.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 33.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 29.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 67c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 26.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 75c | 20.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 70c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 75c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.