Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d134cbadde16b8aca6c1c17d8ea69914877fef32f2e3cef8417932c2d087d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 10c | 763.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 5c | 542.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 10c | 336.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 331.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 308.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 10c | 231.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 230.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 223.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 210.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 46c | 195.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 78c | 173.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 169.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 168.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 160.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 56c | 108.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 28c | 106.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 97.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 75c | 92.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 89.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 69c | 82.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 76.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 71.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 53c | 69.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 68.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 21c | 67.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 63.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 75c | 52.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 42c | 51.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 49.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 39c | 42.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 44c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 39.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 43c | 37.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 28.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 46c | 28.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 58c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 46c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 23.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 48c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 54c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked No | 79c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 58c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.