TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a3b…7060backed No1c1,698$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No16c690.38$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.51,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes77c661.13$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.541729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No67c457.22$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c381.48$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No47c351.55$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes80c347.73$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4817358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes60c310.42$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.285,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes78c286.11$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.432864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No5c260.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8756424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes64c240.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c237.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes18c208.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.51,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No14c179.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3328839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed Yes26c159.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.438042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed Yes78c147.25$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.017871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes17c134.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.936018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes32c110.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes55c106.59$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.421,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes33c99.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.486747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No44c97.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.481,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes70c97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.16959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c96.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes56c91.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked No11c91.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.039819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c91.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.681,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No36c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No22c88.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes68c87.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3213537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes18c78.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No31c75.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4223547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Yes64c73.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes32c70.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes66c69.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3530664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c67.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No26c66.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.457,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb822…1422backed No43c66.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.682969%20 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes18c65.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.34407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes19c63.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.881,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c9…fcc9backed No27c62.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.69683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes17c60.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.515937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes43c59.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.031,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No54c58.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.672951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes38c56.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes68c56.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2537644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No29c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6611731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7c24…81e9backed No52c48.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.391770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes22c48.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.412,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No70c44.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2316366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c43.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No75c42.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.712,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…5b07backed Yes63c41.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No30c39.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.771,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ac4…9966backed No80c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301883.3%15 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No48c37.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.818530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes76c37.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0230046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf568…62adbacked Yes39c36.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.473520%7 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes67c36.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1610059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes50c35.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6732044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked No48c35.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1111938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No44c33.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8715954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…f304backed Yes78c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No79c31.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.237777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No76c31.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0251762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x750d…70f0backed Yes76c30.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.626750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.444553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.217644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7327463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes71c28.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3913081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes59c28.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.549741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes65c28.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No62c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3644448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No37c27.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4811…be32backed Yes63c23.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…bb03backed Yes70c21.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.283033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.610258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2808…cab6backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No76c19.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes68c19.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.291384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes69c19.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0920866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes56c18.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2619848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51d…c3b1backed Yes77c17.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No68c15.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.632846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x481c…2325backed Yes77c15.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5512365%80 W · 43 L+12.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.