Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x729e6b80e055d18a38a801a195a668488cc35afe00c47bf403d83718a94649b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 40c | 857.01$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 47c | 708.95$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.88 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 50c | 703$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 686.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 28c | 681.78$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 49c | 502.83$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 48c | 455.44$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 72c | 440.61$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 41c | 283$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.61 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 51c | 279.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.73 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 23c | 258$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.11 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 60c | 256$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 209.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 71c | 163$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…1296backed Yes | 11c | 159.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…5174backed Yes | 43c | 158.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 26c | 117$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 102$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed No | 45c | 101$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 11c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 67.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 34c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 50c | 64.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d38…4850backed Yes | 55c | 62.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 37c | 59.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 23c | 59.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 25c | 58.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 48c | 57.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +99%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 44.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 38c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 75c | 30.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…1dcbbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac41…6a0abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…ce0bbacked No | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b36abacked Yes | 67c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?this page
- Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Yes won
- Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?No won
- Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.