Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27882ac2c84bac7ce950c4187caa74842575d3f915f4d8c9a7c4520934980a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,609$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6f…3c8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,464$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 48c | 1,079$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.27 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d8…78c7backed Yes | 12c | 1,074$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 40c | 882.17$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 744.37$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.61 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 50c | 740$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 6c | 658.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 61c | 545.83$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 13c | 512.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 4c | 486.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 70c | 415$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 366.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 15c | 315.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 256.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 31c | 179$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 159.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2925…d61dbacked Yes | 16c | 150.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 41c | 139.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 118.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 91.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 14c | 84.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 65.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 43c | 59.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +99%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 69c | 43.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…1dcbbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 26.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 74c | 23.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…04f1backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?this page
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?No won
- Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Yes won
- Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.