Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7623e69615bbed2ea4d7367a7c0922cd130a1b644ae915f14f3731a1e33d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 12c | 544.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 331.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 303.02$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 279.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 222.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 8c | 195.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 180.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed No | 53c | 179.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 179.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 152.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 137.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 51c | 137.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 120.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 120.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 119.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 75c | 119.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 44c | 108.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 106.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…1e03backed Yes | 75c | 103.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 97.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 89.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 33c | 88.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 86.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 82.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 67.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 67.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 62c | 63.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 54c | 57.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 36c | 54.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 71c | 51.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 56c | 51.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 50.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 66c | 50.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 66c | 49.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 58c | 49.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 48.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes | 44c | 43.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 33c | 38.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 63c | 38.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 32.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 59c | 31.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 31.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 69c | 28.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 38c | 27.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 55c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 46c | 23.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 51c | 20.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.