Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5787acb6d06c25577f4ceb8efd5d7b84f175d2aae24a8f21f194c6cbb3dd58a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 400.4$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 348.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 346.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 334.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 325.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 283.81$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 253.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 39c | 249.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 227.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 221.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 152.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 151.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 10c | 140.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 130.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 22c | 127.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 115.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 105.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 21c | 99.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 17c | 99.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 19c | 96.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 92.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 33c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 81.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 74.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 71.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 17c | 66.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 65.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 72c | 62.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 56.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…1e03backed Yes | 30c | 55.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 53.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 51.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 28c | 49.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 65c | 49.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 70c | 41.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 41.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 40.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 29c | 38.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 32.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 76c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 26.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 80c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 73c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 80c | 20.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 80c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 77c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.