Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ff8969c1e30a355e6646d83695f24f3b97eecafc14bf89ed9e11a4795bf242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 299.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 296.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 78c | 250.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 240.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 35c | 224.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 178.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 177.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 19c | 168.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 153.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 66c | 141.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 131.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 84.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked Yes | 41c | 80.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 79.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 26c | 73.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 35c | 73.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 71.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 70.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 65c | 62.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 34c | 59.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…d722backed Yes | 23c | 58.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 57.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 53.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 29c | 52.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 69c | 52.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 38c | 49.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 49.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 34c | 46.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 30c | 43.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 42.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 60c | 40.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes | 29c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 39.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 39.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 41c | 38.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 38.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 36.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 34.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 33.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 71c | 33.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 28.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 74c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed No | 75c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…31bdbacked No | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…517cbacked No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 76c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C or below on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.