Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c21d13cd3fa5e79656bbad1e34efba3d36cb5b45be08b7c10047510511a578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 916.21$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 833.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 499.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 402.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 299.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 295.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 269.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 23c | 249.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 16c | 242.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 200.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 7c | 199.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 24c | 197.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 11c | 196.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked Yes | 12c | 186.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 155.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 152.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 9c | 148.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 143.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 137.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 126$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 106.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 105.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 97.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 96.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 15c | 92.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 46c | 84.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 79.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 14c | 79.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…30eebacked Yes | 24c | 78.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 78.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 28c | 75.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 16c | 75.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 27c | 68.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Yes | 15c | 67.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 75c | 65.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…0c08backed Yes | 21c | 65.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 75c | 64.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 61.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 24c | 61.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 27c | 52.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 32c | 51.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 45c | 50.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 47.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 47.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 24c | 43.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 61c | 31.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 67c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 58c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 80c | 17.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…89b4backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C or below on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.