Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9db441972b29ec7fd15c6ab4caa1177c1a648a6bb196eb222c0ee97d04dca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 15c | 878.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 442.79$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 12c | 439.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 438.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 285.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 243.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 50c | 212.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 19c | 212.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 195.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 190.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 180.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 164.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 15c | 153.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 24c | 123.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 119.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 44c | 113.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 110.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 13c | 107.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 97.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 97.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 69c | 96.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 12c | 93.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…47b8backed Yes | 31c | 86.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 84.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 82.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 23c | 80.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 67c | 69.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 64.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 59.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 79c | 53.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 52.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 57c | 47.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 46c | 47.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 42.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 57c | 42.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 46c | 41.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 55c | 41.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 52c | 40.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 55c | 40.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 38.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 37.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 70c | 35.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 31c | 32.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 38c | 32.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 59c | 31.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 29.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 53c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 28.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 53c | 26.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 60c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…9a04backed Yes | 61c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cf…8ff4backed No | 61c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 19.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…ca1bbacked No | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 18.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 16.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C or below on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.