Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08dc1e2806b9e3aff6b1f8ed9925652de424ac29cc07e0ea23a2a92bd0fc59a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 34c | 1,300$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 52c | 552.03$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.7 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Up | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…d359backed Up | 54c | 450$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Up | 45c | 365.89$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Down | 46c | 243.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…a1b9backed Up | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…b9afbacked Up | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Down | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 10c | 117.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…f617backed Up | 54c | 115.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Up | 61c | 102.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 38c | 101.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…e4c4backed Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Down | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 62c | 98.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Down | 51c | 94.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Down | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…0b02backed Up | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Down | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Down | 42c | 52.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Down | 47c | 51.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed Down | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…e60fbacked Down | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Down | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…ee3ebacked Up | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…966fbacked Down | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…c026backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…c29fbacked Up | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Down | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 65c | 29.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 73c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 55c | 24.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Up | 48c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 45c | 24.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.