NBA · resolved market
Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4cf2dc152d140f94490bcef3811899b13f25a41f3ead69a5a6198bf8d9b118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +6.3wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 44c | 490.48$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 56c | 417.36$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.72 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 60c | 280.78$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…fc98backed No | 68c | 245$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 27c | 154.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 117.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 15c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 40c | 60.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 33c | 39.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed Yes | 52c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?this page
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.