NBA · resolved market
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30559e31f290dec39d89428f4b1588798726929453ddce71b5f79c4992357c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b8…dd39backed Yes | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 40c | 3,613$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.46 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 3,573$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 3,292$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.27 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 42c | 2,416$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.37 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,200$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 58c | 2,195$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…1a6fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,552$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 30c | 1,549$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.57 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,431$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.66 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -10.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…114ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,203$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 1,135$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.24 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…bbcdbacked Yes | 55c | 787.68$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed No | 37c | 777$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 47c | 651.97$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.98 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 71c | 637$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.6 | 440 | 40.5%178 W · 262 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 29c | 539.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.47 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 28c | 518.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked No | 35c | 514.58$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 39c | 435.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Yes | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 66c | 401.29$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…ca4cbacked Yes | 61c | 391.43$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…692abacked Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 374.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…c99abacked Yes | 53c | 369.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…450cbacked Yes | 48c | 369.81$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked No | 52c | 288.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8408backed Yes | 58c | 224.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…06e5backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked No | 31c | 155.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked No | 26c | 155.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…029dbacked Yes | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 26c | 137.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 109.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked Yes | 64c | 102.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…d1dcbacked Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 39c | 97.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 79c | 95.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Yes | 58c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Yes | 57c | 90.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed No | 24c | 89.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked No | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 73c | 82.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 40c | 66.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 58c | 58.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…eed2backed No | 50c | 56.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 50.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…d036backed No | 50c | 49.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 77c | 48.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 621 | 44%273 W · 348 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed No | 25c | 46.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe143…a463backed Yes | 58c | 44.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…015fbacked Yes | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…6884backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…fdd8backed Yes | 58c | 36.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…58cabacked Yes | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…8ea9backed Yes | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 65c | 27.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Yes | 79c | 27.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…cd77backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2c21backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe1…4d19backed No | 59c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 52c | 22.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…7696backed No | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…fe33backed Yes | 78c | 18.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…2ce1backed Yes | 62c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?this page
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.