NBA · resolved market
Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03542eec254654f9d34b07d97fc0450e82647c1f1029b4f0c789cf048103c3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed No | 2c | 4,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed No | 22c | 2,553$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 76c | 2,377$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 55c | 999.97$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 721.77$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 29c | 636.34$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb191…a5f4backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 34c | 387.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 16c | 340.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 80c | 337.55$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 48c | 315.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…18bcbacked Yes | 72c | 274.56$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked No | 12c | 235.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 57c | 214.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…05cbbacked Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 27c | 160$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 33c | 104.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed No | 29c | 101.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed No | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…1afbbacked No | 24c | 84.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 29c | 81.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 62c | 70.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…350bbacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 66c | 56.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…cd77backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 47c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked Yes | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?this page
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.