NBA · resolved market
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7967967ffa30fe23ae4b5af8cd8d343bb3ca505fa4f64aee297517c1de657776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 8,694$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,370.13 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 64c | 2,513$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.71 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed No | 71c | 2,411$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked No | 64c | 2,411$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.91 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes | 38c | 2,085$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Yes | 41c | 2,008$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.72 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.16 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 65c | 1,436$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.57 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed Yes | 43c | 1,397$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.05 | 113 | 33.6%38 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 63c | 1,224$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 67c | 1,135$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.23 | 440 | 40.5%178 W · 262 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 67c | 1,100$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…8a3dbacked No | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…c99abacked Yes | 50c | 944.68$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 48c | 845.72$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.27 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -10.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Yes | 44c | 663.02$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 599$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.28 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 34c | 556.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 64c | 538.96$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked No | 56c | 497.68$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 21c | 429.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.58 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 39c | 428.18$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.19 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 70c | 375.46$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 57c | 321.55$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked No | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…d900backed Yes | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…ca4cbacked No | 62c | 296.28$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…eeccbacked Yes | 38c | 252.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…f4fbbacked No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…450cbacked No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaca…23d7backed Yes | 41c | 245.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 57c | 238$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 190.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…f360backed Yes | 57c | 176.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e8…9cf2backed Yes | 34c | 130.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Yes | 22c | 112$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed Yes | 35c | 99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 84.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…9dfcbacked Yes | 44c | 80.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 44c | 76.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…2756backed Yes | 40c | 60.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8faa…1b5cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 49c | 57.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…677cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…ad3cbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 75c | 49.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked No | 55c | 43.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Yes | 39c | 38.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 92 | 71.7%66 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 63c | 30.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…858dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…cdcfbacked No | 62c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 61c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560c…0691backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…e56dbacked Yes | 45c | 24.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked No | 54c | 23.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…729ebacked No | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 59c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?this page
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.