TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,757 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Michigan Wolverines51c129,363$65,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,851.6924351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Michigan State Spartans49c116,751$57,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,542.9617742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan State Spartans49c9,913$4,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,005.8290645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Michigan Wolverines51c4,814$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.1521636.1%78 W · 138 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Michigan State Spartans50c3,456$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.2474152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans50c1,555$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.52,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Michigan Wolverines51c1,500$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.451060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Michigan State Spartans49c1,425$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.292,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90d9…56c4backed Michigan State Spartans55c1,110$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.964100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans50c900.17$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.085556.4%31 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines45c689.59$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.5212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Michigan State Spartans50c563.73$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.39050%45 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans50c505.96$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.282,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans49c501$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.515,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Michigan State Spartans51c327.67$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.12,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Michigan Wolverines49c314.34$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.481,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Michigan State Spartans73c301.42$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7513342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Michigan Wolverines47c297.09$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.786235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Michigan State Spartans53c291.79$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.953,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan Wolverines49c204.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4457448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…648fbacked Michigan Wolverines50c193.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Michigan State Spartans56c175.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.633855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Michigan Wolverines26c164.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8714728.6%42 W · 105 L-0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan State Spartans51c158.6$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7163551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Michigan Wolverines47c148.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0250548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Michigan Wolverines40c147.66$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7124951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans48c129.83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.363,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa330…9d33backed Michigan Wolverines53c125.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.281338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Michigan Wolverines45c118.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.641,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Michigan Wolverines47c117.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9722950.7%116 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Michigan Wolverines49c114.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9562140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Michigan State Spartans54c111.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.610045%45 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Michigan Wolverines47c105.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.564242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x979d…87dcbacked Michigan State Spartans49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a8…7ffbbacked Michigan State Spartans56c99.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff9…795abacked Michigan State Spartans54c99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Michigan Wolverines47c98.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9455840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Michigan Wolverines32c97.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1411550.4%58 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Michigan State Spartans51c97.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6223054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Michigan State Spartans51c96.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.082462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed Michigan State Spartans52c95.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.767450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Michigan State Spartans53c93.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.291050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Michigan State Spartans53c93.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2582846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Michigan Wolverines50c91.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8514553.1%77 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4130…ff0dbacked Michigan State Spartans80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb91…f1edbacked Michigan State Spartans77c87.36$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.354353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8583…e3e3backed Michigan Wolverines51c78.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.563435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked Michigan State Spartans51c77.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan Wolverines31c75.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.534,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Michigan State Spartans51c74.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Michigan Wolverines37c73.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1623149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Michigan State Spartans50c72.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4734343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7649…a58dbacked Michigan State Spartans50c63.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37f…333bbacked Michigan State Spartans72c62.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Michigan Wolverines38c60.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.181,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Michigan Wolverines47c60.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4692246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d15…6914backed Michigan State Spartans56c58.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.632045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Michigan State Spartans51c57.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2664647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9c…4bb6backed Michigan State Spartans52c52.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.162450%12 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Michigan State Spartans72c49.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0710755.1%59 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Michigan State Spartans52c49.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7757655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Michigan State Spartans50c48.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.317258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan State Spartans49c47.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.333,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28f…6d18backed Michigan State Spartans77c45.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines45c42.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Michigan State Spartans55c42.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.988372.3%60 W · 23 L+14.6wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Michigan State Spartans57c41.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.062,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9683…108bbacked Michigan Wolverines51c38.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Michigan State Spartans52c38.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.463860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Michigan Wolverines47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0424148.5%117 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Michigan Wolverines47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0432850%164 W · 164 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Michigan Wolverines47c31.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9830050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Michigan Wolverines47c31.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9148551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29aa…e4eabacked Michigan Wolverines49c30.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfda1…454fbacked Michigan Wolverines49c30.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.142334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…1c05backed Michigan State Spartans49c30.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Michigan Wolverines44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213457.5%77 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Michigan State Spartans49c29.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0660954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Michigan State Spartans71c27.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.054050%20 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…4238backed Michigan State Spartans57c26.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b6…5f6ebacked Michigan State Spartans50c25.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.66450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Michigan Wolverines46c23.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9989146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Michigan Wolverines48c23.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Michigan Wolverines47c23.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8621152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Michigan Wolverines49c20.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.095433.3%18 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb28a…ba10backed Michigan Wolverines49c20.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…7593backed Michigan Wolverines49c20.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e7…80d0backed Michigan Wolverines49c20.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.