Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c1cd7f080787b8f1303ac6e9acc5e4095969f8e86083885051dec0a6d8591d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 48c | 2,908$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.64 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,606$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 49c | 813.73$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.56 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 583.09$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 302.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 54c | 292.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 292.11$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 236.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 199.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Over | 52c | 198.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 161.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 148.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 55c | 123.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 52c | 98.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 45c | 94.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 64c | 90.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 83.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Under | 51c | 77.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Under | 47c | 73.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 51c | 70.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 52c | 66.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Under | 50c | 65.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Over | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Over | 69c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Under | 48c | 35.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 44c | 30.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 44c | 30.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 47c | 29.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Under | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 64c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.