Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cfb28abf02ec86571ad3885800816ee35c8343884d92f671030bd8f7654ed2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,326 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 16,000$8,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,159.93 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 3,181$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.29 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 3,113$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.81 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 3,034$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.29 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 2,671$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 2,084$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.76 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,988$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,967$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.49 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 1,927$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.81 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 1,681$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.13 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 1,113$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.44 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 1,078$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 1,048$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 1,011$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.86 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 999.1$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.57 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 848.54$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.22 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 709.74$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.87 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 584.95$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.23 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 487.7$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 481.93$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 391.82$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Michigan Wolverines | 46c | 324.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.73 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 323.67$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.07 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 297.38$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.77 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 250.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…648fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 173.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 112.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Michigan State Spartans | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 70c | 99.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 99.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 99.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 99.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 81.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 80.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 77.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 76.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 56.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…7873backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 55.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 49.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 43.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 43.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 40.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 24.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 19.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.