TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Arizona Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,033 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines51c3,335$1,701 inWon+$1,634.2412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Arizona Wildcats49c1,978$969 inLost-$969.46235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcea3…0708backed Arizona Wildcats49c989.18$485 inLost-$484.72050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Wildcats49c712.07$349 inLost-$348.9122047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Arizona Wildcats47c303.27$141 inLost-$141.3217742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Michigan Wolverines53c229.49$122 inWon+$107.8621850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Michigan Wolverines51c206.85$105 inWon+$101.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0a…8c6cbacked Arizona Wildcats48c100$48 inLost-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Michigan Wolverines54c97.24$53 inWon+$44.7310846.3%50 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Michigan Wolverines52c70.07$36 inWon+$33.631580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Michigan Wolverines52c64.74$34 inWon+$31.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb409…03e9backed Arizona Wildcats48c60.55$29 inLost-$29.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Michigan Wolverines54c58.34$32 inWon+$26.8410755.1%59 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Michigan Wolverines52c51.49$27 inWon+$24.529154.9%50 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdddf…d97abacked Arizona Wildcats48c40.37$19 inLost-$19.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Michigan Wolverines53c33.47$18 inWon+$15.732254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Michigan Wolverines53c22.86$12 inWon+$10.751861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Michigan Wolverines53c22.86$12 inWon+$10.751668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Michigan Wolverines53c22.86$12 inWon+$10.751850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan Wolverines60c22.54$13 inWon+$9.094,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb38…f78dbacked Michigan Wolverines53c19.09$10 inWon+$8.97450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Michigan Wolverines53c19.09$10 inWon+$8.972240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.