Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd08ad49749189bbc3ae7b2d2c8711a9ddddec183cc1d8d563e0813510c62a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,578 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca80…6009backed No | 0c | 5,460$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…9714backed No | 13c | 1,567$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 7c | 1,532$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,293$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked No | 1c | 1,170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…3cc4backed No | 10c | 1,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…284dbacked No | 5c | 1,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 947.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…e793backed No | 3c | 911.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 8c | 856$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 7c | 849.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 7c | 664.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…3bc0backed No | 7c | 614.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 577.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…127bbacked No | 8c | 565.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…5061backed No | 4c | 515.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…9ba0backed No | 4c | 481.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…0665backed No | 2c | 466.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 6c | 443.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 11c | 441.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 14c | 435.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 9c | 432.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 66c | 396.79$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 11c | 369.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 330.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 38c | 316.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…0ef5backed No | 8c | 306.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 11c | 265.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…1401backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…3df2backed No | 9c | 233.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…7677backed No | 13c | 225.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 10c | 213.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…991cbacked No | 5c | 205.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573f…65c1backed No | 15c | 204.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…60c4backed No | 8c | 196.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…6f1ebacked No | 26c | 179.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 14c | 175.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 173.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 12c | 155.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 14c | 122.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 13c | 120.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 10c | 117.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.