Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e2846fc0847e686532bf25502eb7a8f0ae52a56b6b66cff04ba2f7b0fda69c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMBC Retrieversof UMBC Retrievers, Vermont Catamounts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,089 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 8,166$4,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.36 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Vermont Catamounts | 47c | 5,593$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.58 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Vermont Catamounts | 46c | 2,186$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.39 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 2,027$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…3431backed Vermont Catamounts | 45c | 1,911$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Vermont Catamounts | 55c | 1,321$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.77 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Vermont Catamounts | 44c | 1,113$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vermont Catamounts | 44c | 1,099$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.75 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vermont Catamounts | 46c | 1,001$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.12 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5704…faa5backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 650$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…9768backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 650$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7b…1d32backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 620$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed UMBC Retrievers | 57c | 523.87$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 506.01$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.52 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 497.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 487.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 439.34$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.77 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Vermont Catamounts | 48c | 356.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vermont Catamounts | 51c | 274.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.06 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 271.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Vermont Catamounts | 48c | 250.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 243.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed UMBC Retrievers | 57c | 167.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 99.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked UMBC Retrievers | 45c | 94.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Vermont Catamounts | 47c | 84.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vermont Catamounts | 32c | 81.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Vermont Catamounts | 45c | 71.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Vermont Catamounts | 45c | 70.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UMBC Retrievers | 61c | 45.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 45.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vermont Catamounts | 45c | 40.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Vermont Catamounts | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Vermont Catamounts | 44c | 34.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked UMBC Retrievers | 57c | 25.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 58c | 17.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-3.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-1.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 127.5Over won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 135.5Under won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 136.5Under won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 137.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.