Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 136.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x784e5e7e49db91300f372f4b559f14971edcb824069e60ab929d1e7202fef5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,137 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 57c | 4,898$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.34 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,453$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 1,415$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.24 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 359.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 43c | 328.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 43c | 254.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 43c | 230.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 43c | 145.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 113.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 87.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 54c | 80.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 60c | 55.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 46c | 55.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 43c | 44.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…befabacked Over | 40c | 37.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 28.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 44c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 136.5this page
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-3.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-1.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 127.5Over won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 135.5Under won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 137.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.