TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
North Carolina Tar Heelsof Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,470 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked North Carolina Tar Heels58c3,729$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.4733438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Duke Blue Devils52c3,304$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.5315858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Duke Blue Devils51c2,524$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.184147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels49c2,222$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.222,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b00…03a9backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c1,509$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.594025%10 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Duke Blue Devils44c1,106$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.992,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Duke Blue Devils51c1,081$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.144040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed North Carolina Tar Heels50c997.54$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.275154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed North Carolina Tar Heels50c988.43$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.58432.1%27 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils40c903.8$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.963,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed North Carolina Tar Heels50c849.5$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.052,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Duke Blue Devils30c746.15$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5784854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Duke Blue Devils56c613.49$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.023135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Duke Blue Devils50c572.45$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.234845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels48c538.58$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.282,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Duke Blue Devils47c503.25$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.045,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed North Carolina Tar Heels53c498.44$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.7516445.1%74 W · 90 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c498.26$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0837246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Duke Blue Devils52c438.44$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9910144.6%45 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels50c422.66$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.336235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked North Carolina Tar Heels49c407.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0826749.1%131 W · 136 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed Duke Blue Devils51c397$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.474050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Duke Blue Devils52c280.96$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8612649.2%62 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52fc…6c84backed North Carolina Tar Heels47c253.09$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.142339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c217$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1891848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c212.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ac…8fc5backed North Carolina Tar Heels47c210.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.787044.3%31 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfba…80ebbacked Duke Blue Devils51c209.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.065639.3%22 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Duke Blue Devils51c195.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1322640.7%92 W · 134 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked Duke Blue Devils52c190.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.136446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc1b…0adebacked Duke Blue Devils54c182.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.131861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23d5…1232backed Duke Blue Devils55c179.58$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.131241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed North Carolina Tar Heels49c151.09$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.634463.6%28 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c109.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8816350.9%83 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed North Carolina Tar Heels49c102.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0382846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed North Carolina Tar Heels50c99.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.567450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Duke Blue Devils51c97.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5632246.6%150 W · 172 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed North Carolina Tar Heels47c94.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.66048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…7873backed North Carolina Tar Heels49c91.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.434040%16 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Duke Blue Devils56c90.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.724,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels47c84.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels47c84.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7114051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x24ee…f34ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels53c83.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc37f…333bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels56c72.11$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed North Carolina Tar Heels55c66.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.757542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Duke Blue Devils42c59.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1935852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed North Carolina Tar Heels50c57.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5564647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed North Carolina Tar Heels49c56.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8263551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Duke Blue Devils53c56.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7432652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…86afbacked North Carolina Tar Heels45c53.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8583…e3e3backed Duke Blue Devils55c48.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.863435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked Duke Blue Devils55c45.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.784259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Duke Blue Devils35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.954949%24 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd3…1e9bbacked Duke Blue Devils39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed North Carolina Tar Heels52c35.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1257655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Duke Blue Devils38c34.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2160551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Duke Blue Devils52c33.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4127755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Duke Blue Devils36c33.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed North Carolina Tar Heels45c33.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Duke Blue Devils73c31.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Duke Blue Devils65c30.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.152,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3914…2103backed North Carolina Tar Heels49c30.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed North Carolina Tar Heels46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils60c29.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.753,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd036…ec4bbacked Duke Blue Devils50c29.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.872250%11 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Duke Blue Devils51c29.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8717446.6%81 W · 93 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4a…7ef5backed Duke Blue Devils51c29.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Duke Blue Devils54c28.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5760954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4662…1d65backed North Carolina Tar Heels52c22.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Duke Blue Devils51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213457.5%77 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd0c…282cbacked Duke Blue Devils54c19.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.