Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5394c7eec421a62660728efdcd8f8ad34cbe31857d4aad1ef54cc5ba363521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Tar Heelsof Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,470 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 58c | 3,729$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.47 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 3,304$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.53 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 2,524$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.1 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 2,222$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.22 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…03a9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 1,509$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.59 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 1,106$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.99 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 1,081$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.14 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 997.54$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.27 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 988.43$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 40c | 903.8$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.96 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 849.5$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.05 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Duke Blue Devils | 30c | 746.15$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.57 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 613.49$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 572.45$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 538.58$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 503.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 498.44$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 498.26$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.08 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 438.44$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 422.66$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.33 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 407.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 397$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 280.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…6c84backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 253.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 212.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…8fc5backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 209.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 195.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0adebacked Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 182.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…1232backed Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 179.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 151.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 109.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 102.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 94.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…7873backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 91.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 90.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 84.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 84.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ee…f34ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 83.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…333bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 56c | 72.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 66.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Duke Blue Devils | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 57.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 56.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…86afbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 45c | 53.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…e3e3backed Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 48.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…2e2abacked Duke Blue Devils | 55c | 45.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Duke Blue Devils | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e9bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 35.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Duke Blue Devils | 38c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 33.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Duke Blue Devils | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 45c | 33.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 73c | 31.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Duke Blue Devils | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 30.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils | 60c | 29.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ec4bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…7ef5backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…282cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-18.5)North Carolina Tar Heels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.