Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432c71e15e50ec10e99a4cedb9d0368461d0095b71def84b81f71948df205c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Tar Heelsof Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 2,949$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.45 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 2,592$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.18 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 544.57$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.29 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 416.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 297.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 121.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 107.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 43c | 37.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 67c | 35.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 33.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 29.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 20.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-18.5)this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)North Carolina Tar Heels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.