TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brownsof Bills, Browns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bills49c55,444$27,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,237.1519152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bills50c28,406$14,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,20316955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Browns51c26,413$13,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,942.3124957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Browns51c26,352$13,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,912.3886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Browns50c21,000$10,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,444.7216051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Browns50c20,790$10,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,366.8811168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bills49c13,698$6,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,712.246764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills49c11,691$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,728.5847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Browns52c11,541$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,540.818140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Browns50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Browns51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,41024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bills50c8,121$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.2754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Browns50c6,400$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20037350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Browns51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9403444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Browns50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+45.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe548…a51abacked Bills47c5,008$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-80.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Bills51c5,008$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.884628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Browns50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Browns50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0005352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Browns49c3,860$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.9273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills48c3,750$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.911,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Bills49c3,449$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6904456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bills50c3,411$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.0477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Bills50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002821.4%6 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills49c2,701$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.4953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Browns51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22519240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Bills48c2,065$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.7216860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Browns50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00014035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bills46c1,887$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.8350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bills49c1,531$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Bills50c1,407$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.721353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Browns52c1,400$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67211759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Browns55c1,057$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9913641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Bills49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Bills50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Browns51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Bills49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49014342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Browns53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4705230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Bills51c988.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Browns51c700$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34318744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Browns49c676.61$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.8264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Browns51c647.41$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.415949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bills51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30613641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Browns51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29417251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Bills50c596.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Browns54c500$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23213448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Browns52c430$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.47346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a4…adcdbacked Bills46c410$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.54332.6%14 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Browns33c400$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26910537.1%39 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Browns50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Browns51c389.19$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2665048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bills60c316.44$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Browns51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14711752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Bills51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Browns79c292$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.228454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Bills50c254.05$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Bills49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.524352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bills49c207.84$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9836341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Bills49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Browns51c203.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.924951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Browns51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9855345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Bills49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44ac…a025backed Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Browns54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922560%15 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Bills50c198.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x036a…4c9abacked Bills50c198.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Browns52c177$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7424547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Browns51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.55154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1da…bdc2backed Browns51c137$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bills49c132$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6814641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bills58c122$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3235648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Browns50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Browns50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609757.7%56 W · 41 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0676…1f43backed Bills36c111.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496c…941cbacked Bills49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Bills49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bills49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Browns50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509651%49 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Browns51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0413253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Browns49c95.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Browns54c93.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.154944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Browns52c89.94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.171520%3 W · 12 L-5.4wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-60.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Bills59c85.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504040%16 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb51b…779dbacked Bills51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Browns54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0711054.5%60 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a4…a82dbacked Bills50c71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bills51c68.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3528151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54c1…812fbacked Bills50c66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Browns51c62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.38875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Bills49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016940.8%69 W · 100 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Browns50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309862.2%61 W · 37 L+11.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc6ff…1eb6backed Browns51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66bc…c341backed Browns52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bills46c57.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3634652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Browns50c53.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9716349.7%81 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Browns51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Bills20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.