NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Browns: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763d452937c8fd45d7e7071d04b684e9e064c09472ced5859e186ca13e1d11fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 1,433$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.82 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,228$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.74 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 48c | 242.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 181.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 52c | 136.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 54c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 32.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Over | 48c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. BrownsBills won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 41.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Browns won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.