NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Browns: O/U 41.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabeca7381914efd95a4d9cfc80f85445a4561655d1771ba2f5c65cd8e3a612be

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,689 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	52c	11,275$5,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,873.36	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Under	51c	7,242$3,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,660.75	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Over	47c	7,225$3,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,829.2	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	50c	4,071$2,035 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,035.6	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	3,725$1,788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,936.89	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over	48c	3,125$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,625	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	53c	2,849$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.93	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Over	49c	2,500$1,225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,275	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	13c	2,120$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.17	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	48c	1,593$765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.36	314	50%157 W · 157 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	48c	1,087$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.34	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Over	49c	740.38$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Over	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	362	46.7%169 W · 193 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	500$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.5	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Over	48c	402.08$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.08	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	49c	385$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.35	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+16.3wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	49c	265.31$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.31	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	49c	250$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	243	52.7%128 W · 115 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Over	46c	218$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.72	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	109	48.6%53 W · 56 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Under	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	133	47.4%63 W · 70 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	+5.1wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	50c	180$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	14c	141$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…9871backed Over	48c	105.95$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.15	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+4.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa535…dffcbacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	151	44.4%67 W · 84 L	-7.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under	29c	80$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	78$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	52c	59.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	112	60.7%68 W · 44 L	+10.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Over	48c	50.21$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.11	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Over	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	+20.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	169	40.8%69 W · 100 L	-7.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…e568backed Under	52c	40.38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.47	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	149	51%76 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	50c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	29.83$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.11	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Under	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.5wins	-0.32per pick	41cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	51c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…9a67backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bills vs. Browns: O/U 41.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event