NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b306e4e83ccebe776765ed658ccb7405afa90b8c861cc0b045cffee1c115a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Bills, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bills | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Browns | 44c | 7,435$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.04 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Bills | 15c | 6,502$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.35 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Bills | 58c | 4,417$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.81 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Bills | 57c | 4,413$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.42 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Browns | 42c | 3,121$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.58 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Browns | 43c | 3,100$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Browns | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.99 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Bills | 56c | 2,946$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Browns | 43c | 2,930$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.85 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Browns | 43c | 2,384$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Browns | 44c | 1,364$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.64 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 44c | 1,250$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Browns | 43c | 1,186$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.36 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Bills | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Bills | 57c | 752.63$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Bills | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…00e9backed Bills | 56c | 527.91$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Browns | 42c | 508.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…32d3backed Bills | 57c | 456.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Bills | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Bills | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Browns | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Browns | 43c | 270.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bills | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Browns | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Browns | 44c | 227.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Browns | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Browns | 43c | 202.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Bills | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Bills | 55c | 199.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Browns | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Bills | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Browns | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bills | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Browns | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Browns | 44c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Browns | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Browns | 45c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Bills | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Browns | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Browns | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Bills | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Bills | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Bills | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Browns | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bills | 43c | 73.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Bills | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Browns | 44c | 67.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Browns | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Browns | 38c | 62.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bills | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Browns | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Browns | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Browns | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Browns | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Browns | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Browns | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Bills | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bills | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…dc73backed Browns | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bills | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…b954backed Bills | 57c | 33.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Bills | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Bills | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Bills | 80c | 29.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Browns | 43c | 28.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Browns | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Bills | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. BrownsBills won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 41.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 42.5Over won
- Bills vs. Browns: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-10.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.