NFL · resolved market
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4df3da106c139eed2fc28fa679a8e54ef71f19073c5bebc552b6d77525c8349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,970$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 10c | 5,205$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.5 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,986$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 6c | 1,975$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 11c | 1,899$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…5d2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,316$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,275$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 1,130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 1,054$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 931$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 579.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 11c | 485$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 4c | 435.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 4c | 391.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 12c | 227.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 223.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 11c | 174.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…c4ecbacked Yes | 9c | 162.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…75d8backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 10c | 135.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…6da3backed Yes | 23c | 130.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 130.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 90.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…1435backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?this page
- Will Ashton Jeanty win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?Yes won
- Will Joe Burrow win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jonathan Taylor win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Puka Nacua win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.