NFL · resolved market
Will Puka Nacua win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f1bb1aa745a28e53580beeb027cffe2eee3d9109b55e008b814bb51b997625d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 13c | 4,563$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.01 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,267$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.59 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,811$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.67 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,639$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,267$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,249$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.33 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 9c | 1,110$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5e…4972backed Yes | 8c | 930.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 886.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 8c | 834.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 802.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes | 5c | 628.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 600.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 14c | 416.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…a64fbacked Yes | 7c | 406$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 311.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…a5d5backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Yes | 10c | 150.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…5421backed Yes | 13c | 142.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 128$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03e…40cfbacked Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes | 15c | 84.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Puka Nacua win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?this page
- Will Ashton Jeanty win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Bijan Robinson win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?Yes won
- Will Joe Burrow win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
- Will Jonathan Taylor win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.