TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-18.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wright State Raidersof Virginia Cavaliers, Wright State Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,925 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd26e…6d8dbacked Wright State Raiders53c46,570$24,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,887.952860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Virginia Cavaliers47c42,030$19,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,754.2619950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Virginia Cavaliers7c10,928$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.1825145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Virginia Cavaliers47c9,687$4,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,553.085759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wright State Raiders53c5,555$2,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.8517742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Virginia Cavaliers46c4,971$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.6618744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Wright State Raiders54c4,589$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.117951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed Virginia Cavaliers47c3,770$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.678748.3%42 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wright State Raiders53c3,481$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.952,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Virginia Cavaliers47c3,166$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.3418048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Virginia Cavaliers48c2,597$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.6727755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1e…6738backed Virginia Cavaliers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9605054%27 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa5…8232backed Virginia Cavaliers48c1,493$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.811442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Virginia Cavaliers48c1,240$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Wright State Raiders53c1,157$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.7416341.7%68 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers46c997.15$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.0812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers46c926.36$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.135,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Wright State Raiders79c800.05$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4618556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb99…0730backed Virginia Cavaliers48c746.68$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.412050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Wright State Raiders52c594.76$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.4810846.3%50 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Wright State Raiders53c558.09$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.322043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Virginia Cavaliers49c507.52$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6923754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Virginia Cavaliers46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23037246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Virginia Cavaliers48c493.36$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.815942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91db…6fb2backed Virginia Cavaliers48c493.36$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.815843.1%25 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Virginia Cavaliers48c492.59$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.444337.2%16 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Virginia Cavaliers48c450$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Wright State Raiders52c446.07$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1117051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ac…8fc5backed Virginia Cavaliers47c421.82$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.267044.3%31 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Wright State Raiders53c398.3$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.26636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea34…4e12backed Wright State Raiders54c353.13$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6327…23f4backed Wright State Raiders54c350.33$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d8…a2fbbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c349.89$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae9…ddedbacked Wright State Raiders54c346.37$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402d…33cfbacked Wright State Raiders54c346.16$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cd…ca1fbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c345.9$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xface…6e6fbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c342.23$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b7…5424backed Virginia Cavaliers47c340.9$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wright State Raiders52c313.24$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3560548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Virginia Cavaliers47c304.84$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2713343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c263.36$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7814346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c261.7$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12339454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…1f13backed Virginia Cavaliers48c240.04$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d3…1bbabacked Wright State Raiders52c225.53$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Virginia Cavaliers48c219.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.176349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Wright State Raiders51c204.38$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1512344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd63…42d8backed Wright State Raiders54c203.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x483b…304abacked Virginia Cavaliers49c203.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Wright State Raiders53c199.41$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8620642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed Wright State Raiders54c198.26$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.24050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcd…7014backed Virginia Cavaliers49c196.51$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Wright State Raiders53c190$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.357448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed17…ab79backed Virginia Cavaliers47c185.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Wright State Raiders54c183.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4433855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b2…4655backed Wright State Raiders52c182.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.42560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…91f4backed Virginia Cavaliers47c179.71$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…6089backed Wright State Raiders54c173.03$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf0…18d5backed Virginia Cavaliers49c167.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27c…51f8backed Wright State Raiders52c163.98$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf4b…7126backed Wright State Raiders54c160.96$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Wright State Raiders53c160$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.28535.3%30 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcf7…e19cbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c159.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e72…33f9backed Virginia Cavaliers49c155.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53f…4edebacked Wright State Raiders52c151.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f2…37fdbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c148.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.62450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4dd…ad7bbacked Wright State Raiders53c142.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.811741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1d…dac4backed Wright State Raiders54c134.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Virginia Cavaliers46c85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.17950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Wright State Raiders52c84.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.492050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172f…b136backed Wright State Raiders53c82.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Wright State Raiders51c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7540849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Wright State Raiders52c64.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0522047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Wright State Raiders55c63.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5713050%65 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Virginia Cavaliers46c62.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9346246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…249cbacked Virginia Cavaliers48c61.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.741513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-71.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Virginia Cavaliers48c59.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5513447%63 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Virginia Cavaliers47c55.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1150745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Wright State Raiders54c55.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3319554.9%107 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d02…46e2backed Wright State Raiders54c54.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.928640.7%35 W · 51 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Virginia Cavaliers47c52.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.788543.5%37 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7afa…5394backed Virginia Cavaliers47c52.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.783951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…44a2backed Virginia Cavaliers49c50.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.784845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Wright State Raiders52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1336…4116backed Virginia Cavaliers25c48.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Wright State Raiders54c45.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.116963.8%44 W · 25 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd178…3834backed Wright State Raiders54c43.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Virginia Cavaliers47c38.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3635338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wright State Raiders53c37.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.734,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…06b3backed Wright State Raiders53c37.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.584548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a1…3d34backed Virginia Cavaliers48c29.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26b9…9ab5backed Wright State Raiders53c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.634850%24 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Wright State Raiders55c26.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.117153.5%38 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Wright State Raiders54c26.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0830652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wright State Raiders66c25.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.464,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Virginia Cavaliers49c24.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0719848%95 W · 103 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1911…ebf8backed Virginia Cavaliers47c24.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Virginia Cavaliers44c24.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2591…b527backed Wright State Raiders53c19.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.