Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97729d29f1089487c3d37b38e84dc4c3bf9f7f6ebdf8c73c8dcfaa7cec68dbbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, Wright State Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,393 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 35c | 3,994$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.34 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Wright State Raiders | 68c | 1,637$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wright State Raiders | 67c | 1,619$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.95 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wright State Raiders | 39c | 1,256$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…6f28backed Wright State Raiders | 48c | 999.27$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 737.92$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.82 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Wright State Raiders | 54c | 734.83$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.52 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 59c | 396.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wright State Raiders | 50c | 388.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 286.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 132.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 72.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 59.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wright State Raiders | 54c | 48.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 34c | 38.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-12.5)Wright State Raiders won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-14.5)Wright State Raiders won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-17.5)Wright State Raiders won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-18.5)Wright State Raiders won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-8.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 144.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 149.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 151.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 154.5Over won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 157.5Under won
- Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 160.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.