NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d0d7ec4c083906ff6063778a8c48572e9ff039e35a4f1184345234f4d7b4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 52c | 14,497$7,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,958.44 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 10,485$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.54 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 10,227$4,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.02 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 6,108$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,935.08 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 1,249$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.48 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 47c | 1,236$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.92 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 850$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 659$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.37 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 618$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.46 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 51c | 516.9$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 399.84$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 354.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 341.1$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 46c | 186$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 51c | 129$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Over | 49c | 72.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 47c | 66.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…8178backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…fb4bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6788…f69dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 53c | 32.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d7…d6d0backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…f18bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
- Cardinals vs. BengalsBengals won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.