NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51db5927cf7dde9816e643c4e9813c32a4e12f0dcf735e4c0d998f1bab64cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 6,035$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.22 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 5,076$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.62 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 43c | 1,408$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.44 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 61c | 750$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Over | 57c | 522.21$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.55 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 56c | 478$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.32 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 57c | 200.45$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…5b42backed Over | 57c | 78.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7496backed Under | 40c | 65.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…c4b2backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
- Cardinals vs. BengalsBengals won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.